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Publication

Policy lessons from quantitative modeling of leprosy.

Abstract

Recent mathematical and statistical modeling of leprosy incidence data provides estimates of the current undiagnosed population and projections of diagnosed cases, as well as ongoing transmission. Furthermore, modeling studies have been used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed intervention strategies, such as postleprosy exposure prophylaxis and novel diagnostics, relative to current approaches. Such modeling studies have revealed both a slow decline of new cases and a substantial pool of undiagnosed infections. These findings highlight the need for active case detection, particularly targeting leprosy foci, as well as for continued research into innovative accurate, rapid, and cost-effective diagnostics. As leprosy incidence continues to decline, targeted active case detection primarily in foci and connected areas will likely become increasingly important.

More information

Type
Journal Article
Author
Medley GF
Blok DJ
Crump RE
Hollingsworth DT
Galvani AP
Ndeffo-Mbah ML
Porco TC
Richardus JH
Year of Publication
2018
Journal
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Volume
66
Issue
suppl_4
Number of Pages
S281-S285
Language
eng
ISSN Number
1537-6591
DOI
10.1093/cid/ciy005
Alternate Journal
Clin. Infect. Dis.
Publication Language
eng