Estimating the size of the leprosy problem: the Bangladesh experience.

Assessing the size of the leprosy problem in a country is an important but difficult issue for the purpose of programme planning. Different methods have been proposed but often estimates have proved to be very different from reality. We have attempted to address this issue in Bangladesh, a country where official estimates are more than 5 times greater than the registered number of leprosy cases. A combination of methods, including surveys, data from leprosy control programmes and local knowledge based on the Delphi techniques have been combined to construct an estimate of the total number of cases in Bangladesh. This figure (173,196) is only 10% greater than the official estimate (136,000). It will be possible over the next few years to see how close this figure is to reality through data obtained from the National Leprosy Control Programme which is now rapidly developing to cover the whole country.