Time Trend and prediction of Grade 2 Disability among new cases of leprosy in Nepal: A Statistical Modelling

Abstract Background It is estimated that globally there are around 2 million people with grade 2 disabilities attributed to leprosy. Objective of the study was to find out the time trends of Grade 2 Disability among the new cases of Leprosy in Nepal. Materials and Methods A retrospective study was carried out on the data collected from the Health ministry records of Nepal, between 2009 and 2013. The annual reported numbers of Grade 2 Disability among new cases of leprosy plotted in y-axis against the corresponding year in the x-axis. Curve fitting, also known as regression analysis, was used to find the "best fit" line or curve for a series of data points. Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, and Cubic were chosen to fit to the obtained curve. Descriptive statistics and statistical modelling were used for the analysis and forecasting of data. Results Including the constant term from the equation, the inverse model was the best fit, for the forecasting of the Grade 2 Disability among new cases of leprosy in Nepal [R2=0.739, p=0.062]. Using inverse model, it is estimated that 78 with CI [0, 170] of Grade 2 Disability among new cases of leprosy can be expected in Nepal by the year 2020. Conclusion Our study proves Inverse model is the best fit for epidemiological modelling of Grade 2 Disability among the new cases of Leprosy in Nepal. Prevention of disabilities should begin with diagnosing leprosy.