A stochastic model to simulate the spread of leprosy in Juiz de Fora

This work aims to simulate the spread of leprosy in Juiz de Fora using the SIR model and considering some of its pathological aspects. SIR models divide the studied population into compartments in relation to the disease, in which S, I and R compartments refer to the groups of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals, respectively. The model was solved computationally by a stochastic approach using the Gillespie algorithm. Then, the results obtained by the model were validated using the public health records database of Juiz de Fora.