Spatial study of leprosy in Bahia, Brazil, 2001-2012: an approach based on the local empirical Bayesian model.

OBJECTIVE: to compare the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of epidemiological indicators of leprosy, both crude and also corrected using the empirical Bayesian model, Bahia, Brazil, 2001-2012.

METHODS: this was an ecological study using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System; all 417 municipalities in Bahia were included and the following indicators per 100,000 inhabitants were analyzed - detection rate of new cases in the general population, in those <15 years old, and in those with grade 2 physical disability -; the local empirical Bayesian model was used to smoothen the indicators, and Student's t-test was used to compare means.

RESULTS: indicators estimated by the model were higher than crude indicators; estimated detection rates in the general population and in those <15 years old were higher than crude rates in 253 (60.7%) and 209 (50.1%) municipalities, respectively; areas of greatest risk were concentrated in the northwestern and southern regions of the state.

CONCLUSION: spatial distribution of the disease was heterogeneous and there was possible underreporting of cases.