Spatial distribution of leprosy in Nigeria.

Background: Despite achieving the WHO elimination target of less than 1/10,000 population in 1998 at the national level, there are still pockets of relative high endemicity of leprosy in Nigeria. This study used spatial analytic techniques to determine the spatial distribution of leprosy in Nigeria.

Methods: The study is an ecological study of secondary data of new leprosy cases reported to the National TB and Leprosy Control Programme (NTBLCP) in Nigeria, 2010–2014. The 36 states and Federal Capital Territory were used as the unit of geographical analysis. The global Moran’s I and Local Moran’s I (LISA) test were used to measure spatial autocorrelation and significant levels were taken at P < , 0·05.

Results: A total of 17,356 new leprosy cases were notified over 5 years (2010–2014) in Nigeria. A majority of the cases were multi-bacillary 16,037 (92·4%) while 1319 (7·6%) were pauci-bacillary. A total of 1569 (9%) children were reported with leprosy. The leprosy case detection rate increased slightly from 2·21/100,000 in 2010 to 2·24/100,000 in 2012 and declined to 1·66/100,000 population in 2014. Significant clustering of average annual leprosy case detection rate was observed in Kebbi state only, while childhood leprosy was significantly clustered in four states namely Sokoto, Kebbi, Rivers and Zamfara states.

Conclusion: The study observed a significant clustering of leprosy case detection rate in Nigeria. The findings can serve as a useful guide to the national leprosy control programme for efficient use of scarce resources to target interventions to priority states for the elimination of leprosy in the country.