01652nas a2200157   4500000000100000008004100001100001400042700001200056700002000068245011500088856005800203300001300261490000700274520119900281022001401480       2019                            d1 aSouza CDF1 aLuna CF1 aMagalhães MAFM00aLeprosy transmission in Bahia, 2001-2015: modeling based on Jointpoint regression and spatial scan statistics.  uhttps://www.scielosp.org/pdf/ress/2019.v28n1/e2018065  ae20180650 v283 a<p><strong>OBJECTIVE: </strong>to describe the trend and the spatial distribution of leprosy in the state of Bahia, Brazil, 2001-2015.</p>

<p><strong>METHODS: </strong>this was a mixed ecological study of epidemiological indicators of leprosy; Jointpoint regression was used for the temporal analysis, while spatial scan statistics were used to identify clusters of the disease; the trend was classified as stationary, increasing or decreasing; we calculated the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC).</p>

<p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>there was a reduction in prevalence (AAPC = -5.6; p&lt;0,001), treatment dropout (AAPC = -13.7; p&lt;0.001), and females with leprosy (AAPC = -0.6; p&lt;0.001); the new grade II case coefficient (AAPC = 2.7; p&lt;0.001) and the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2,2; p&lt;0.001) showed a growing trend; spatial distribution was heterogeneous and concentrated in three regions in particular (north, west and south of the state), with variation between the indicators.</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSION: </strong>persisting leprosy transmission in the state, late diagnosis and high hidden prevalence is suggested.</p>
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