02392nas a2200325   4500000000100000008004100001260001200042100001400054700001200068700001800080700001200098700002500110700001500135700001400150700001400164700001200178700001500190700001200205700001200217700001700229700001800246700001300264700001600277245013600293856009800429300001300527490000700540520150500547022001402052       2020                            d  c01/20201 aRamos ACV1 aGomes D1 aSantos Neto M1 aBerra T1 aSimionato de Assis I1 aYamamura M1 aCrispim J1 aJúnior J1 aBruce A1 aSantos FLD1 aSouza L1 aAlves Y1 ade Andrade H1 aArcoverde MAM1 aPieri FM1 aArcêncio R00aTrends and forecasts of leprosy for a hyperendemic city from Brazil's northeast: Evidence from an eleven-year time-series analysis.  uhttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237165&type=printable  ae02371650 v153 a<p>This study's objective was to estimate the temporal trends of leprosy according to sex and age groups, as well as to estimate and predict the progression of the disease in a hyperendemic city located in the northeast of Brazil. This ecological time-series study was conducted in Imperatriz, Maranhão, Brazil. Leprosy cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 were included. Detection rates stratified by sex and age groups were estimated. The study of temporal trends was accomplished using the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition method and temporal modeling of detection rates using linear seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model according to Box and Jenkins method. Trend forecasts were performed for the 2017-2020 period. A total of 3,212 cases of leprosy were identified, the average incidence among men aged between 30 and 59 years old was 201.55/100,000 inhabitants and among women in the same age group was 135.28/100,000 inhabitants. Detection rates in total and by sex presented a downward trend, though rates stratified according to sex and age presented a growing trend among men aged less than 15 years old and among women aged 60 years old or over. The final models selected in the time-series analysis show the forecasts of total detection rates and rates for men and women presented a downward trend for the 2017-2020 period. Even though the forecasts show a downward trend in Imperatriz, the city is unlikely to meet a significant decrease of the disease burden by 2020.</p>  a1932-6203