01943nas a2200349   4500000000100000008004100001260001300042653001500055653001000070653002100080653001100101653001000112653002100122653002100143653002600164653001100190653001100201653002000212653001200232653001600244653002100260653001700281653001600298100001500314700001500329700001500344245006800359300001200427490000700439520113300446022001401579       2008                            d  c2008 Jul10aAdolescent10aAdult10aAge Distribution10aBrazil10aChild10aChild, Preschool10aEndemic Diseases10aEpidemiologic Methods10aHumans10aInfant10aInfant, Newborn10aleprosy10aMiddle Aged10aSex Distribution10aTime Factors10aYoung Adult1 aMoreira MV1 aWaldman EA1 aMartins CL00a[Leprosy in Espírito Santo State, Brazil: a growing endemic?].  a1619-300 v243 a<p>This study provides a trend analysis of leprosy among patients in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 1980 to 2003. Using temporal series statistical models, an upward trend was identified throughout the period in the overall detection rate (p<0.05), with an apparent stabilization at the end of the period. We also observed an upward trend for the following periods: (i) 1980-1987 in the <15 and >or=50-year age groups and for paucibacillary forms; (ii) 1988-1995 for the 15-19, 20-29, and >or=50-year groups and for multibacillary forms; and (iii) 1996-2003 in the 20-29-year group and paucibacillary forms. The indicators for evaluation of the endemic indicate: stable levels in grade 2 disability (mean of 6%); a proportion of less than 10% of cases in individuals<15 years of age; and a treatment dropout rate of approximately 6%. Prevalence showed a sharp decline. The upward trend can be explained partially by greater surveillance sensitivity, but the high proportion of individuals<15 highlights the need for studies aimed at better knowledge of residual sources of infection, especially in the household.</p>  a0102-311X