Background
India achieved national elimination of leprosy as a public health problem in 2005, defined as prevalence rate (PR) below 1 per 10,000 population. However, elimination by prevalence threshold does not automatically imply interruption of transmission, equitable case detection, or prevention of disability. Persistent grade-2 disability (G2D) at diagnosis indicates delayed detection and remains a critical policy concern.
Objectives
To synthesize national leprosy trends using official Indian and WHO sources, critically assess alignment between elimination claims and disability outcomes, and generate a pragmatic, evidence-based framework for a disability-sensitive elimination phase through 2027 and beyond. Methods : This review used structured synthesis of publicly available policy documents, surveillance updates, and peer-reviewed literature. Core indicators were PR, annual new case detection rate (ANCDR), child proportion among new cases, and G2D per million population. Advanced descriptive analyses included relative change, annualized rate-of-change, benchmark gap analysis, and continuation scenarios for 2027 under explicit assumptions. We avoided causal inference because available sources did not provide patient-level covariates or harmonized state-year microdata.
Results
Long-term trends show major progress: PR declined from 57.2 per 10,000 in 1981 to 0.57 in 2025. Child proportion among new cases declined from 9.04% (2014-15) to 4.68% (2024-25), while G2D declined from 4.48 to 1.88 per million. Despite this improvement, G2D remains above the benchmark of less than 1 per million, indicating unresolved late diagnosis in high-risk settings. Continuation scenarios suggest that without acceleration in early case detection, disability targets may not be achieved at the same pace as prevalence targets.
Conclusions
India has achieved and sustained major epidemiologic gains. The next phase must prioritize disability-sensitive surveillance, delay reduction, and geographically targeted interventions. PR should remain a core metric, but not the sole definition of elimination success.