02185nas a2200193   4500000000100000008004100001260001600042653001800058653002100076653001200097100001200109700001100121700001600132700001100148245010800159300001100267520169900278022001401977       2024                            d  bElsevier BV10aSchwann Cells10astochastic model10aleprosy1 aGhosh S1 aRana S1 aMukherjee S1 aRoy PK00aInsights of infected Schwann cells extinction and inherited randomness in a stochastic model of leprosy  a1092813 a<p>Investigating disease progression, transmission of infection and impacts of Multidrug Therapy (MDT) to inhibit demyelination in leprosy involves a certain amount of difficulty in terms of the in-built uncertain complicated and complex intracellular cell dynamical interactions. To tackle this scenario and to elucidate a more realistic, rationalistic approach of examining the infection mechanism and associated drug therapeutic interventions, we propose a four-dimensional ordinary differential equation-based model. Stochastic processes has been employed on this deterministic system by formulating the Kolmogorov forward equation introducing a transition state and the quasi-stationary distribution, exact distribution analysis have been investigated which allow us to estimate an expected time to extinction of the infected Schwann cells into the human body more prominently. Additionally, to explore the impact of uncertainty in the key intracellular factors, the stochastic system is investigated incorporating random perturbations and environmental noises in the disease dissemination, proliferation and reinfection rates. Rigorous numerical simulations validating the analytical outcomes provide us significant novel insights on the progression of leprosy and unravelling the existing major treatment complexities. Analytical experiments along with the simulations utilizing Monte-Carlo method and Euler–Maruyama scheme involving stochasticity predicts that the bacterial density is underestimated due to the recurrence of infection and suggests that maintaining a drug-efficacy rate in the range&nbsp;0.6−0.8&nbsp;would be substantially efficacious in eradicating leprosy.</p>
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