@article{article,
  author = {Ramos ACV and Gomes D and Santos Neto M and Berra T and Simionato de Assis I and Yamamura M and Crispim J and J{\'u}nior J and Bruce A and Santos FLD and Souza L and Alves Y and de Andrade H and Arcoverde MAM and Pieri FM and Arc{\^e}ncio R},
  title = {Trends and forecasts of leprosy for a hyperendemic city from Brazil{\textquoteright}s northeast: Evidence from an eleven-year time-series analysis.},
  abstract = {<p>This study{\textquoteright}s objective was to estimate the temporal trends of leprosy according to sex and age groups, as well as to estimate and predict the progression of the disease in a hyperendemic city located in the northeast of Brazil. This ecological time-series study was conducted in Imperatriz, Maranh{\~a}o, Brazil. Leprosy cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 were included. Detection rates stratified by sex and age groups were estimated. The study of temporal trends was accomplished using the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition method and temporal modeling of detection rates using linear seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model according to Box and Jenkins method. Trend forecasts were performed for the 2017-2020 period. A total of 3,212 cases of leprosy were identified, the average incidence among men aged between 30 and 59 years old was 201.55/100,000 inhabitants and among women in the same age group was 135.28/100,000 inhabitants. Detection rates in total and by sex presented a downward trend, though rates stratified according to sex and age presented a growing trend among men aged less than 15 years old and among women aged 60 years old or over. The final models selected in the time-series analysis show the forecasts of total detection rates and rates for men and women presented a downward trend for the 2017-2020 period. Even though the forecasts show a downward trend in Imperatriz, the city is unlikely to meet a significant decrease of the disease burden by 2020.</p>},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {PloS one},
  volume = {15},
  pages = {e0237165},
  month = {01/2020},
  issn = {1932-6203},
  url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237165\&type=printable},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0237165},
  language = {eng},
}