BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease that is considered to be declining, though it still remains prevalent in many parts of the world. A study was made to explore the health and socioeconomic factors that most influenced the trend of the disease in a typical Mediterranean country.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: An ecological study was conducted, investigating possible social, economic and health factors related to the evolution of leprosy incidence. The time period considered was 50 years--the second half of the twentieth century in Spain.
RESULTS: The variables showing the strongest correlation to evolution of the incidence of the disease were employment, the number of physicians, and the gross domestic product (GDP), with negative coefficients--while tuberculosis showed a positive coefficient. However, the GDP showed the highest coefficient (0.5). The model that best explained the evolution of leprosy over the last 50 years comprised a 6-year lag period between the socioeconomic factors and the incidence of leprosy--explaining 57% of the data obtained. The annual decrease in leprosy incidence was 1.6%.
CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic development, assessed in terms of the GDP, was the most important factor in explaining the evolution of leprosy incidence.
}, year = {2005}, journal = {International journal of leprosy and other mycobacterial diseases : official organ of the International Leprosy Association}, volume = {73}, pages = {258-68}, month = {2005 Dec}, issn = {0148-916X}, url = {http://ila.ilsl.br/pdfs/v73n4a04.pdf}, language = {eng}, }