@article{30025,
  keywords = {Mycobacterium leprae, leprosy, infectious disease, Forecast, Epidemiology},
  author = {Odriozola EP and Quintana AM and González V and Pasetto RA and Utgés ME and Bruzzone OA and Arnaiz MR},
  title = {Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination.},
  abstract = {<p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking.</p>

<p><strong>OBJECTIVES: </strong>We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020.</p>

<p><strong>METHODS: </strong>Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods.</p>

<p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases).</p>

<p><strong>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: </strong>Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts.</p>
},
  year = {2017},
  journal = {Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz},
  volume = {112},
  pages = {419-427},
  issn = {1678-8060},
  url = {http://www.scielo.br/pdf/mioc/v112n6/0074-0276-mioc-112-6-0419.pdf},
  doi = {10.1590/0074-02760160490},
  language = {eng},
}